I arrived back in Germany this week, almost at the exact moment when all the election posters went up. Unlike the United States, German political parties can only start putting up posters and billboards several weeks before the election, so the 'official' campaign season is actually quite short.
After looking at all these posters for a few days, I was struck by their similarities. They usually show a simple picture of whatever candidate is being promoted, and in most cases the candidate is framed and posed in exactly the same way. If a poster includes a tag-line it is usually a fairly standard, uncontroversial political statement about jobs, the environment, or good government. Of course, each party sticks to a particular color and font scheme. And some do this more overtly than others; the Greens tint their posters green and the FDP stick to a distinct neon look. But, overall, all the faces and names start to blend together after a while.
And I know it might sound odd, but I think this speaks to a basic reality of the German political party system, at least when it comes to the major ruling parties. Namely, the differences between party platforms in Germany can be remarkably subdued. This is all the more apparent if we compare the content of partisan platforms in Germany to those in other democracies like the U.K or the U.S. The quickest way to demonstrate the depth of this consensus is by noting that after sixteen years of Merkel, she'd still probably win the election easily if she ran again. On most big issues, German politics have settled into a state of broad consensus: pro-multiculturalism, pro-environment, pro-liberal morality, pro-EU. To be sure, there are still fiery political disagreements, for example on refugees, capital gains taxation, housing, or energy. But these disagreements are often a matter of detail and execution, not fundamental principles. While Germans themselves might not always feel like they agree on a lot, in the current ecosystem of democratic states the degree of German consensus is remarkable.
If the policy differences between parties are fairly fine-grain, it is not as straightforward for voters to evaluate candidates from a vantage point of 'how will my life materially change?'. As a result, electoral calculations can depend more on perceptions of a candidate's character and political integrity: which candidate will make a better leader, which 'fits' the country better? Indeed, the 2021 election will in all likelihood depend on how the public perceives the character and integrity of each party's candidate. More specifically, the Chancellorship will depend on how the three front-runners – Armin Laschet of the CDU, Annalena Baerbock of the Greens, and Olaf Scholz of the SPD – are viewed as politicians and people. The discourse surrounding all three has certainly orbited more around questions of character, and less on questions of political vision.
which candidate will make a better leader, which 'fits' the country better?
Many Germans view Laschet as the consummate politician, two-faced and double-dealing, deeply entrenched in the party apparatus and lacking personal charm. Many Germans view Baerbock as inexperienced and uninspiring, and criticize her for public gaffes or the series of small scandals that emerged over the summer. Many Germans view Scholz as dry and taciturn, without enough charisma or sensitivity to lead.
At the same time, many Germans love Laschet, Baerbock, and Scholz. They love them because they perceive these same traits in a positive light. Laschet is seen as experienced and steady; Baerbock as exciting and transformative; Scholz as straight talking and effective.
This mirroring phenomenon happens in all democracies. No election is decided purely on matters of policy; people generally vote for politicians they trust and like. And, as in life, people will disagree about which personality traits are most appealing for a political figure.
But Germany is a peculiarly clear example of a democracy where elections come down to competing personal brands. It has been amazing to follow this election cycle in the media (and listen to conversations amongst my neighbors and family) precisely because you can see in real time these competing brands jousting and wrestling for dominance. News stories and viral clips come out portraying this and then that candidate poorly, while all the while comparatively little is said about how 'the greens will ruin everything' or 'the CDU have ruined everything.' As I wrote in May, it appears that, at least for now, the vision for Germany Merkel established remains unchallenged.
No catastrophic scandals have emerged, but each candidate faces their own death by a thousand cuts if they stand in place for too long. I for one cannot wait to see how this dance plays out. I am a little less sure of the result than I was in May. But I am sure that regardless of who wins, it won't be because of their posters.