Many have described the upcoming German elections as a choice between continuity and change. Merkel’s sixteen-year run as chancellor will end, and Germany must choose whether to follow her CDU successor Armin Laschet or the younger, ascendant co-leader of the Greens, Annalena Baerbock.
In many ways, this assessment is correct. Laschet is about as close a Merkel-politician as one can find in Germany. He is all but certain to continue Germany on the path she set if reelected, both in tone and substance. Baerbock, in contrast, is of an entirely different generation. Her party have never held the chancellorship and have, until recently, never been taken all that seriously. And while the Greens are a centrist party, their 2021 platform is “radical in its language and ideas,” as Anna Sauerbrey recently put it. The CDU platform is yet to be released, but it is unlikely that it will be described as ‘radical.’
As most have already noted, however, Baerbock is young and inexperienced at the national level. It is difficult to say how many Germans will be turned off by this come September, but I suspect it will put a hard ceiling on the Greens’ success. Why? Because in a pandemic year wrecked by economic fallout I think most Germans will be unwilling to take a perceived plunge into the unknown.
It is always complicated to try and untangle candidate and party in German polling data, but it is unlikely that the falling CDU approval is entirely a comment on Laschet. He might be slightly unpopular, but he isn’t such a disaster to explain a 12% drop in four months. The bigger story over this period is undoubtedly the bungling of the vaccine rollout, something immediate and visceral and easy to pin on the current government. Germans are frustrated and scared and that's coming through in the polling. But with summer and the EU’s recently secured Pfizer vaccines on the way, Laschet/CDU numbers should stabilize and slightly increase. That’s not to say that the CDU won’t ultimately lose seats, they almost certainly will. But when it comes to a choice between the CDU and the Greens, the former still has the better shot at winning the national mantle.
In sum, my prediction is that the CDU will win somewhere around 27% while the Greens will pick up 24%. A Black-Green coalition is the most likely subsequent outcome. Laschet will get his chance to fill Mutti’s shoes. Baerbock will win a cushy ministerial post – and a better governing CV to carry into 2025.
There is one more angle to this election though, something not really being talked about: 2021 is a choice between continuity and continuity.
After all, Baerbock and her Greens have a lot of Merkel about them. The party is moderate and compromising yet morally liberal. Baerbock is untested but said to be an excellent politician and negotiator, someone with an instinctual ability to build trust and consensus. Everything I’ve read about her operating style reminds me of early reports on Merkel, back when she was the underdog poised to take over German politics. Indeed, in 2005 Merkel was a young upstart and, like Baerbock, was commonly underestimated.
Of course, they have differences. For one, Merkel has always been noted for her unemotional, almost dull nature, whereas Baerbock has been praised for her honest emotional expression. If elected the Green leader will certainly bring her own style and make her own mark. But she will hardly stray far from the Germany of the last ten years. And she will definitely seek to capture some of the magic that kept Merkel in power all this time.
2021 is a choice between continuity and continuity.
So, despite everything, 2021 is not really the ‘succession year,’ at least not in the sense that Germany will move on from Merkel’s legacy of leadership. Her image and example will continue to lead the country, whether the country realizes it or not. The real question for observers of German politics, then, is not who will succeed her as chancellor. The real question is if and when Merkel’s vision of Germany will be surpassed by something new.
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